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Odds Piranha Daily Cheat Sheets · MLB
⚾ Strikeouts
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⚡ Savant Whiff% · Put Away% · BRL% allowed · Monte Carlo 5k + Analytical model
How to read this board · ranked by our edge vs the betting market
⭐$ BET Recommended bet — the blended EV clears the vig at the real price. The only "bet this" tier.
"+EV at +104 or better" is the fair combined price — 65% sharp market + 35% our model (model capped so it can't run away from the market). Bet at that number or better and you're +EV. best = the top price on the board now and its EV. The market/model split shows where the edge comes from — market is line-shopping (trustworthy), model is our projection (speculative, since strikeouts are near coin-flips). Always confirm live before betting.
📋 Bet Slip Opens the live betslip in the app — real-time price and true EV.
OVER · 57% A lean (past 51.5% model confidence) with our win probability. A lean is not a lock.
PASS No edge — projection sits on the line. Most nights, most pitchers land here. That's honest.
✅ Lineup set Opposing lineup confirmed and factored in — the projection is at its sharpest.
Single-game strikeouts are ~90% coin-flip noise (we backtested 1,456 starts). We don't sell locks — we rank honestly and flag only the rare spots that clear the vig. Track every result at results.
No data.
How the model works
Whiff% swing-and-miss rate (primary signal)
Put Away% % of 2-strike counts → K
K% season strikeout rate
K/9 strikeouts per 9 innings
BRL% allowed barrel rate against pitcher
HH% allowed hard-hit rate against pitcher
GB% ground ball rate (more GB = fewer Ks)
Opp K% how often opponent lineup Ks
Park adj stadium K factor
Weather wind/temp minor effect
Avg IP innings cap on total Ks
Monte Carlo 5,000 iter + analytical blend