Fights within 7 days ยท ๐ฅ striking edge ยท ๐คผ grappling edge ยท ๐ข pick is playable at market price ยท +EV = side beats de-vig market by 5%+ ยท โญ = pick AND value agree
Win probability โ each fighter carries a modified Elo rating built from full UFC fight history (K-factor boosted for early finishes, dampened for split decisions). At matchup time the rating is adjusted for reach differential, age, and ring rust (layoff > 9 months), then converted to a win probability with the logistic formula P = 1 / (1 + 10^((RbโRa)/400)).
Method of victory โ finishing events are modeled as Poisson processes. A KO rate ฮป is built from the attacker's knockdown output + career KO share, scaled by the defender's chin vulnerability (KO-loss share + striking defense). A submission ฮป combines sub attempts, the defender's sub defense, and takedown pressure. P(decision) = e^โ(ฮปko+ฮปsub) โ the chance the fight survives every finishing event.
Value edge โ market odds are de-vigged, then compared to the model's probability. A green VALUE tag means the model's number beats the market's implied probability by 5%+ at the best available price. The "play if better than" line converts model probability (minus a 3% safety margin) to American odds โ e.g. if it says โ120, only bet at โ120 or better.
โ ๏ธ Predictions are model estimates, not guarantees. Sample stats ship with this page; live odds load from the Odds Piranha backend when deployed. Bet responsibly โ 21+.